Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 2.867979 3.426834 4.051445 4.799201 5.667841 6.642824 7.817673
2025-11-23 2.057334 2.766600 3.643173 4.797578 6.268184 8.068390 10.426919
2025-11-30 1.547470 2.298841 3.308443 4.745496 6.716039 9.297700 12.904926
2025-12-07 1.155396 1.877065 2.921525 4.512567 6.836561 10.061006 14.814530
2025-12-14 0.927692 1.631274 2.717953 4.473029 7.177982 11.115795 17.184673
2025-12-21 0.763019 1.443217 2.557985 4.455798 7.523675 12.182494 19.645520
2025-12-28 0.685492 1.381161 2.580880 4.716713 8.310447 13.962806 23.310484
2026-01-04 0.599976 1.286027 2.529171 4.839475 8.877747 15.443076 26.629247
2026-01-11 0.539923 1.225523 2.525596 5.037948 9.582728 17.193344 30.508273
2026-01-18 0.465716 1.121372 2.423802 5.042312 9.945221 18.401157 33.587815
2026-01-25 0.385553 0.987529 2.242431 4.870148 9.966138 19.020945 35.717044
2026-02-01 0.318936 0.868686 2.070555 4.689239 9.943286 19.550054 37.714831
2026-02-08 0.277363 0.800421 1.995839 4.697906 10.290794 20.787040 41.090237
2026-02-15 0.241997 0.739543 1.927369 4.710092 10.646000 22.068175 44.647595
2026-02-22 0.208079 0.674276 1.837642 4.662948 10.873541 23.124387 47.866383
2026-03-01 0.169447 0.586052 1.677630 4.434820 10.696112 23.380831 49.592969
2026-03-08 0.146536 0.536983 1.604874 4.396238 10.916065 24.430821 52.910790
2026-03-15 0.127887 0.495879 1.545083 4.379376 11.179622 25.585469 56.510055
2026-03-22 0.122356 0.495546 1.593961 4.636336 12.085320 28.125350 63.037976
2026-03-29 0.112165 0.476985 1.589472 4.757240 12.688114 30.073969 68.491812
2026-04-05 0.105383 0.468643 1.612657 4.952709 13.484283 32.488860 75.053380
2026-04-12 0.093505 0.438384 1.566363 4.957008 13.821391 33.935402 79.687936
2026-04-19 0.078612 0.391866 1.461961 4.787452 13.713653 34.394458 82.262315